Vital Ocean Upwelling in Gulf of Panama Failed for First Time Ever — What Happens Now?

We have wondered aloud in the past what would happen if the Gulf Stream collapses in 2025, and later in the year, we are now asking what would happen if the Gulf of Panama fails. The health and well-being of our world's gulfs and its bodies of water are crucially important to the survival of the world's species, and if the Gulf of Panama fails, there could be incredibly dangerous ramifications.

Scientists are wondering what will come next, and just how impactful this failure may be.

Below, we explore the reports of the Gulf of Panama's unusual behavior that scientists did not expect, what all of this means, and who and what will be impacted. Continue reading so that you can better understand what is going on in the Gulf of Panama and just how dire the situation has become.

According to a report in USA TODAY, a "dramatically unusual" occurrence in the ocean may portend dangerous times ahead.

"Warm air dances with cold air; cold water chases warm water. It's all a part of a predictable, stable dance of currents and climate patterns that naturally happen all across the Earth. Until it doesn't," per the USA TODAY report. "For the first time since records began 40 years ago, the cold, nutrient-rich waters of the Gulf of Panama failed to emerge this year."

The findings of this unusual occurrence have been published in an article entitled "Unprecedented suppression of Panama’s Pacific upwelling in 2025" in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

"Data suggest that the cause was a reduction in Panama wind-jet frequency, duration, and strength, possibly related to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position during the 2024–2025 La Niña, though the mechanisms remain unclear," according to the article.

The ramifications, to put it lightly, are vast.

"The consequences are likely significant, including decreases in fisheries productivity and exacerbated thermal stress on corals that typically benefit from upwelling’s cooling," per the article. "This event underscores how climate disruption can threaten wind-driven tropical upwelling systems, which remain poorly monitored and studied despite their importance to ecology and coastal economies."

Per the "Discussion" section of the published article, "The unprecedented failure of upwelling in the Gulf of Panama in 2025 appears linked to anomalous wind patterns, particularly reduced frequency, strength, and duration of wind-jet formation. When northerly winds formed, they were as strong in 2025 as in any previous year, but occurred significantly less frequently, for shorter periods, and accumulated less wind stress."

"Of equal concern is the potential exacerbation of thermal stress on coral reefs, which, without upwelling, likely face more prolonged thermal stress, potentially leading to more extensive bleaching," per the article. "Whether the 2025 event signals the first of future failed upwellings warrants investigation through enhanced monitoring, predictive modelling, and targeted research on the interactions between oceanography, ecology, and human resource dependence in tropical upwelling systems."