Study Reveals Another "Migraine Trigger" — What Is a “Surprisal Score?”
"Migraine forecasting tools" may help with managing migraine symptoms.
Published Nov. 13 2025, 3:48 p.m. ET

You may try to employ any number of natural remedies to relieve symptoms of a headache, but for those who suffer from frequent migraines, sometimes relief feels unattainable. Knowing the conditions that may contribute to headaches as well as the dietary triggers for migraines can be beneficial, but still, migraines can be debilitating.
Researchers from Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital have attempted to explore new ways to help those who suffer from frequent migraines.
What has the research yielded, and what kind of insights have the researchers from Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital gathered? Is real, genuine relief for migraine sufferers on the way?
Below, we explore the latest research into migraine onset and experiences. Continue reading to learn more about this fascinating research.

What are some migraine triggers?
According to the Switch4Good article "6 Reasons to Detox from Dairy Today," dairy consumption is thought to contribute to the onset of headaches.
"If you’ve been suffering from migraines a lot lately, think about what you have eaten. If dairy makes a regular appearance in your meals—specifically, cheese—it may be the culprit. Tyramine, a natural chemical, has been linked to headaches. Cheese contains a substantial amount of tyramine, which could set off your next headache or migraine."
According to the American Migraine Foundation, stress, a changing or irregular sleep schedule, hormone changes, caffeine and alcohol, and changes in the weather are among the top culprits for migraine triggers.
If you consistently fail to meet daily water intake goals, if you are sensitive to bright lights, if there is a strong and triggering odor in your vicinity (such as perfumes or gasoline), and if you use some medications that can trigger headaches, these are common symptoms as well.
What causes a migraine?
According to the Mayo Clinic, genetics and environmental factors are thought to contribute to the cause of the onset of a migraine.
"Changes in the brainstem and its interactions with the trigeminal nerve, a major pain pathway, might be involved. Imbalances in brain chemicals also might be involved — including serotonin, which helps regulate pain in your nervous system...Other chemical messengers play a role in migraine pain, including calcitonin gene-related peptide," according to the source.
While researchers still have much to learn about the entirety of the migraine experience, including causes and treatment, they have pinpointed a process that includes four stages: prodrome, aura, attack, and postdrome.
If you suffer from frequent headaches, you should discuss the above information with your primary care provider in order to receive personalized, accurate care.
What is a migraine surprisal score?
According to a report in Newsweek, the researchers from Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital created what is known as a "surprisal score" to assess the unexpectedness of a migraine's onset, with certain scores more strongly indicative of a forthcoming migraine.
"In their analysis of 109 adults who were mainly female, higher surprisal was significantly associated with increased migraine risk within 12 hours and 24 hours,” according to the report.
An unaffiliated provider, Dr. Noah Rosen, the director of the Northwell Health's Headache Center, described "surprisal" thusly: "They're describing something that comes out of the ordinary, out of your usual day...For example, post-traumatic stress disorders or acute stress disorders are both defined by having experienced something that is beyond everyday experience. In less of a dramatic expression, migraine may also represent those experiences which disrupt normal behavior or unexpected.”