Scientists Find Most U.S. States Are Warming Significantly. But These 8 Are the Exception

Global warming has become the most significant concern the masses are facing worldwide. However, it may not be happening in the same way everywhere in the United States. A new study, published in PLOS Climate, led by María Dolores Gadea Rivas of the University of Zaragoza and Jesús Gonzalo of the University Carlos III in Spain, focused on calculating the average temperatures of the states. According to the team, even though climate change is a global issue, people experience the weather locally. They looked at the full range of daily temperatures in each state, examining whether warming shows up on the coldest days, the hottest days, or steadily throughout the year.

To understand what is happening, the team analyzed tens of thousands of daily temperature readings from across the U.S. states. Some records even went back to 1950. The results confirmed earlier findings that average temperatures rose in 27 states between 1950 and 2021. Moreover, the study also found clear warming in 14 additional states. However, a handful of U.S. states have not shown statistically significant signs of warming so far. Those states are: Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas.

The states where temperatures did not fluctuate, mostly in the central and southern U.S., fall within what scientists call a “warming hole.” It refers to a region where temperatures have not increased as clearly as they have in much of the rest of the country, even as global warming rises. For years, researchers have viewed this pattern as an unusual exception or an anomaly. However, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) revealed that this might not be good news after all. This muted warming may be linked to factors such as air pollution from aerosols, changes in land use, or shifts in the water cycle. These influences can interact with greenhouse gas emissions and hide long-term warming trends.

Researchers analyzed by examining the full range of daily temperatures in each state. They checked whether warming shows up on the coldest days, the hottest days, or steadily throughout the year. The team used statistical methods designed to handle year-to-year variability to separate real long-term changes from short-term swings. They built a state-by-state dataset covering from 1950 to 2021 and combined annual averages with more than 26,000 daily temperature readings per state. This approach allowed them to track subtle shifts that would be hidden if each year were reduced to a single number.

The study stated that different kinds of warming can lead to different impacts. More extreme heat can increase health risks and put added pressure on energy systems. On the other hand, milder cold extremes can change growing seasons and reduce some winter-related health risks. Furthermore, these everyday experiences can affect public support for climate action and influence decisions made at the state and local level.

“Looking beyond average temperatures, we show that most U.S. states are warming in specific parts of the temperature distribution, even when average warming is not statistically significant. This reveals strong regional inequalities in how climate change is experienced across the United States,” the authors of the study wrote, per SciTech Daily. The same approach can also be used to study other uneven climate effects in the future, including changes in rainfall and rising sea levels.

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