Plants and Trees Give Us an Early Warning if a Volcano Is About to Erupt — Research Says

Miles beneath a giant oval-shaped crater punctured in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, is a hotbed stirring with restless, agitated magma. It is one of the most aggressive supervolcanoes in the area, with magma flaring in its belly. From time to time, there are bursts of magma and fuming gases. On the surface, it wears a façade of indifference, except for subtle whiffs of carbon dioxide fumes that indicate that the magma will soon rise and explode from the volcano’s mouth. But until a volcano is in its dormant state, there is no way to tell whether or how soon it is going to erupt.

The bursts of carbon dioxide fumes are not reliable indicators, as instruments often confuse the ones released from volcanic bedrock with the ones lingering already in the air. In a study published in the journal Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, scientists revealed an early warning sign that appears in the plants when a volcano around it is about to erupt.

Scientists noted that it is next to impossible to directly measure volcanic carbon dioxide rising from the hotbed, even when the magma is upwelling in its bosom. “Scientists often measure volatile emissions from volcanoes to understand how the magma underneath the volcano is behaving, to anticipate potential volcanic hazards. These emissions are difficult and often hazardous to measure on the ground; therefore, measuring them with satellites would facilitate consistent and safe detection of changes in volcanic activity,” they wrote in the paper.

Led by Robert Bogue from McGill University in Montreal, Canada, a team of scientists ventured out to the Yellowstone caldera with another trick in mind to trap the volcanic carbon dioxide fumes if they were there and tell whether the magma was already pushing upwards. Instead of relying on typical instruments that could detect carbon dioxide fumes, they shifted their focus to the trees and plants growing in the surrounding areas. Since plants eat up carbon dioxide during photosynthesis and convert it into food, if they received extra food, they should look a little healthier. Driven by this logic, the team explored the hydrothermal vents located across Lake Tern near this caldera.

To monitor the plants’ health and greening, the team employed a magic tool called “Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).” NDVI measures how rapidly or vigorously the plants are growing after photosynthesis. They analyzed 185 Landsat 5 and 8 images of the Tern Lake thermal area (TLTA) and recorded the greening trends of these trees.

Any unusual greening could not possibly escape the eyes of satellites hovering above the forests, snapping high-resolution pictures. If these trees displayed records of unusual greening, it could be a sign that the soil was absorbing more nutrients than ever. And more nutrients would mean more carbon dioxide concentration, implying that there was something fishy going on in the volcano’s dark underbelly.

“One area of the forest that was exposed to volcanic gases was healthier than nearly identical, nearby forests growing without the influence of the volcano. This supports the idea that extra volcanic carbon dioxide and water promote tree health,” the researchers concluded. Apart from the greening observation, they noticed a contrasting pattern of happiness and sadness that seemed to spread among the plants depending on whether the volcano was dormant or restless for eruption.

While more carbon dioxide meant happier plants, a little more than too much meant sad plants. Too much of this gas would inevitably turn the soil hotter, thereby making it difficult for plants to survive. So, the next time you notice some mountaintop trees turning greener, it could be a sign that a volcano somewhere is agitating to wake up from dormancy and eject truckloads of simmering lava into the world.
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