New Study Reveals That Dying Great Barrier Reef Can Be Saved — but Only Under One Condition
The Great Barrier Reef has a chance to survive! For the longest time, scientists believed that the beautiful underwater monument would face decline if the global temperatures increase beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, a new study has given hope to the scientific world. The new modelling created by the University of Queensland has offered a nuanced view on the iconic reef, changing the long-held belief that it would eventually be irreversibly destroyed. Until 2050, the Great Barrier Reef is predicted to undergo rapid decline. A recent report had claimed that the reefs have reached the tipping point in their decline, as reported by The Guardian. But the study conducted by the Queensland researchers sings a different tune.
Scientists have pointed out that reefs have an inherent capability to withstand climate change to a certain degree. The decline might still occur, but it may recover if the global heating is kept under 2°C. Despite the positive news, the scientists have warned that the condition of the reefs may worsen in the next few decades. Increasing greenhouse gas emissions caused by the burning of fossil fuels can push global warming to increase by 2.8 °C by the end of this century. “If we stay on the pathway we’re treading, it’s a very bad and grim future for corals,” said Prof Peter Mumby, one of the lead authors of the research. “It won’t lead to the extinction of corals, but it will be an incredibly profound loss," he added.
Coral reefs are highly sensitive to global heating. Increased global warming has surged the temperature of the ocean, increasing threat to marine creatures. Extensive heat can lead to corals expelling algae, the substance that gives them color and nutrients. The continued coral bleaching can eventually make the corals colorless and lifeless. Mass coral die-offs were once an uncommon phenomenon, but it has significantly increased due to rising temperatures. Excessive heat indeed harms the corals, causing bleaching. However, previous studies didn't focus on the adaptability of these underwater gems. Like every organism, each coral is a life of its own and has certain qualities unique to themselves.
This gap in previous studies was recognized and explored in a recent research, published in the journal Nature Communications. It studied the heat tolerance of some coral species and their “eco-evolutionary dynamics.” The scientists analyzed all 3,800 individual reefs, their reproduction patterns, natural cooling zones, aka “climate refugia,” and genetic adaptation. “We ran all of those factors with the most up-to-date climate projections – and the news was not good," said Dr Yves-Marie Bozec, lead author of the research at UQ. The study showed that despite having heat tolerance, these corals can't keep up with the global temperature rise, which has reached 1.5 °C. They even predicted that the number of corals would be halved by 2040.
But there's still a tiny ray of hope that the corals will not head straight to a decline. The recent modelling found that with the global heating remaining below 2 °C, corals have a chance at survival. Cooler areas and reefs being able to seed others will play a huge role in recovery and conservation. Yet taking precautionary measures is important to keep the reef population intact. “Curbing emissions has to remain our number-one priority,” said Mumby. "That will have a bigger effect than any other activities," he added.
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