There's One Part of the World That Will Be Hit First if Atlantic Ocean Current Begins to Collapse

Human-driven pollution and climate change are currently putting immense pressure on the planet’s fragile ecosystems. For instance, excess plastic waste is harming the oceans, and chemicals from various industries are disrupting the food chains and poisoning marine life. Other critical damages also include coral reefs' bleaching. Recently, it has been reported that a vital ocean system, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which helps in regulating Earth’s climate, may soon be approaching a dangerous end. A study warns that it could begin collapsing as early as 2055.

This recent finding was published in a study titled 'Physics-Based Indicators for the Onset of an AMOC Collapse Under Climate Change'. It was published by the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. The AMOC helps drive weather and climate across the globe. It brings warm waters from the tropics toward Europe and the Arctic, as reported by The Guardian. There, the water loses its warmth, becomes heavier, and plunges downward. Scientists previously found that the AMOC has been at its weakest point in recent years when compared to the past 1,600 years. The major cause of this is said to be the carbon emissions due to various developmental activities.

Researchers, who were a part of the recent study, have warned that the future of the AMOC now relies completely on humanity’s carbon emissions. If these emissions remain high, the crucial ocean current may collapse within the next few decades — possibly by 2055. While a total collapse is not the most likely outcome, if the emissions continue to be close to today’s levels for the next 25 years, it could trigger very serious climate impacts. The study further suggests that even with moderate global warming, the AMOC could begin collapsing by 2063.

Stefan Rahmstorf, one of the co-authors of the study and a professor at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, also spoke about the scary findings. He said, "I used to say that the chance of AMOC collapsing as a result of global warming was less than 10%. Now, even in a low-emission scenario, sticking to the Paris agreement, it looks like it may be more like 25%." He added, “These numbers are not very certain, but we are talking about a matter of risk assessment where even a 10% chance of an AMOC collapse would be far too high. We found that the tipping point where the shutdown becomes inevitable is probably in the next 10 to 20 years or so."

In the new research, scientists used 25 different climate models and found a new indicator that points to when the AMOC could be approaching collapse. Unlike earlier methods that relied on surface temperature patterns and more, the new one focuses on the way water actually circulates through the Atlantic itself. Sybren Drijfhout, a professor at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, claimed that if the AMOC collapses, the consequences would be felt across the globe, but Europe would be the worst hit. It could make Northwestern Europe much colder and decrease rainfall, causing farmers to lose up to 30% of their crops.

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